Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd56a…50ce politics 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%9W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$19
politics 36% −$16
sports 13% +$3
economics 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 101 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 143 -0.7% -10.2% 6% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×9.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses9 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage133d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $217 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 27 $368 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $226 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $191 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 23 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $172 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $218 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $167 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $793 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $168 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $159 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $221 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $201 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $214 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $213 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $382 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $220 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $236 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $166 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $207 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $198 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $431 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $401 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $208 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $420 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $200 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $212 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 29 $180 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $226 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $166 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $189 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $244 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $216 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $416 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $233 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $186 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 25h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $29 6d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $29 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $20 19d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 19d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 19d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 20d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $178 22d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $178 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $194 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $194 24d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $227 24d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $227 25d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $226 25d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $226 26d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $191 26d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $191 28d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $165 29d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $165 29d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $172 29d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $172 30d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $166 30d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $166 31d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $174 31d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $174 32d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $218 32d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $218 33d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $167 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.98 · official $37.98 (match) · 446 history records