Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd56c…bdd5 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,639 (-26%) realized −$1,502 · open −$137
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$665
7 days−$669
14 days−$667
30 days−$667
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -12.9% -21.2% 36% 36% -27.5%
≤30d 26 -9.7% -18.3% 38% 38% -24.2%
≤90d 27 -13.0% -21.3% 37% 37% -35.2%
all 36 -18.7% -26.4% 39% 39% -39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 39% -39.9%
10% -33.4% 39% -45.7%
15% -39.9% 36% -50.9%
20% -45.8% 31% -55.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$159 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$170
Realized−$1,502
Unrealized−$137
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage190d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Under 56¢ 31¢ $308 $170 −$137 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 20 $215 −$212 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $100 +$115 +114%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $152 −$150 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $138 −$138 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 20 $304 −$104 -34%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $82 −$81 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $82 −$80 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $174 −$93 -53%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $173 +$214 +124%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $138 −$136 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $86 −$84 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $142 −$140 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $71 +$68 +96%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $147 −$68 -46%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $231 +$194 +84%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $280 −$49 -17%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $122 −$120 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $174 +$127 +73%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $122 +$150 +123%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $139 +$120 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $30 +$47 +158%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $275 −$249 -91%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $224 +$191 +85%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 10 $118 +$106 +90%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 10 $209 −$91 -44%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $207 −$204 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $705 −$701 -99%
Spread: Cowboys (-5.5) Dec 15 $328 −$328 -100%
Packers vs. Broncos Dec 14 $129 −$129 -100%
Commanders vs. Giants Dec 14 $98 +$31 +31%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Cup? Dec 14 $272 −$272 -100%
Knicks vs. Magic Dec 14 $110 +$64 +59%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? Dec 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Dec 13 $62 −$62 -100%
Pacers vs. 76ers Dec 13 $42 +$21 +50%
Hawks vs. Pistons Dec 13 $101 +$41 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 56¢ $312 30m
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi BUY No 58¢ $215 53m
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers SELL San Diego Padres 96¢ $215 54m
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $100 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 60¢ $152 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $138 2h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 35¢ $201 20h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 56¢ $82 20h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 51¢ $304 22h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 36¢ $82 23h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Milwaukee Brewers 28¢ $81 23h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $174 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $173 26h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 48¢ $138 28h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $86 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $142 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $139 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 50¢ $71 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 24¢ $79 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $147 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $425 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 53¢ $231 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 51¢ $24 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 51¢ $26 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 51¢ $24 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 51¢ $24 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 51¢ $24 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 51¢ $26 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 51¢ $26 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 51¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.49 · official $200.74 · 81 history records