Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:13:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D5 0xd572…a526 crypto 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 412d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,187 (+1%) realized +$940 · open +$247
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate60%76W / 51L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$877per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2,023now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$37
14 days+$62
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$2,645
other 34% +$3,629
crypto 11% +$831
politics 10% −$986
sports 7% −$297
economics 2% +$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 0% -6.0%
≤30d 3 +2.3% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.7%
≤90d 22 +19.7% +8.3% 59% 32% -11.8%
all 127 +2.2% -7.5% 60% 36% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 36% -9.2%
10% -16.4% 32% -17.9%
15% -24.5% 28% -25.8%
20% -31.9% 27% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$527) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$163 vs −$235 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

412d coverage
Net worth$2,023
Realized+$940
Unrealized+$247
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses76 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions8
Markets (closed)127 / 135
History coverage412d
Avg bet$877
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 90¢ 97¢ $511 $547 +$36 (+7%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? No 59¢ 62¢ $354 $372 +$18 (+5%)
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 74¢ $182 $305 +$123 (+67%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $250 −$50 (-17%)
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 94¢ 97¢ $207 $215 +$8 (+4%)
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 57¢ $110 $204 +$94 (+86%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $81 $94 +$14 (+17%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $31 $36 +$5 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $951 +$37 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,000 +$25 +2%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,393 +$7 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $21 −$20 -97%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $916 −$910 -99%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $102 +$453 +442%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $324 +$192 +59%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 29 $153 +$364 +237%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $262 −$256 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Apr 16 $150 +$487 +325%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $150 −$146 -98%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Apr 14 $151 −$147 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 14 $151 −$147 -98%
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? Apr 14 $594 +$1 +0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $200 +$279 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 29 $711 −$584 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 29 $200 +$56 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 29 $300 +$197 +66%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $440 +$30 +7%
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026? Mar 27 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 18 $480 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 11 $408 +$392 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 11 $374 −$165 -44%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Mar 09 $527 −$71 -13%
Will Iran strike Bahrain in March? Mar 08 $2,979 +$14 +0%
Will Iran strike Kuwait in March? Mar 08 $1,466 +$38 +3%
Will Iran strike Iraq in March? Mar 07 $254 +$6 +2%
Will Iran strike UAE in March? Mar 06 $6,916 +$66 +1%
Spurs vs. 76ers Mar 04 $150 +$55 +37%
Will Iran strike Qatar in March? Mar 04 $2,966 +$64 +2%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Mar 03 $110 −$110 -100%
Celtics vs. Bucks Mar 03 $100 +$33 +33%
Clippers vs. Warriors Mar 03 $100 +$85 +85%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Mar 02 $200 +$5 +3%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? Mar 02 $3,984 +$12 +0%
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $4,455 −$36 -1%
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31? Mar 01 $400 +$4 +1%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Feb 28 $6,747 +$37 +1%
Iran Strike on Israel by December 31? Feb 28 $33 +$48 +142%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $4,494 −$2,897 -64%
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Feb 28 $80 −$3 -4%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $18,737 +$921 +5%
Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 26? Feb 26 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Jupiter be accused of insider trading? Feb 25 $70 −$70 -100%
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30? Feb 24 $105 −$13 -13%
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $1,290 +$166 +13%
Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? Feb 24 $5,036 +$39 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7AM ET Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $313 1h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 5h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 8h
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $584 13h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 59¢ $253 19h
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 59¢ $98 21h
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta SELL No 97¢ $48 43h
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta SELL No 97¢ $3 2d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 59¢ $0 3d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 59¢ $3 3d
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta SELL No 97¢ $2 3d
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta SELL No 97¢ $58 3d
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta SELL No 97¢ $12 3d
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta SELL No 97¢ $48 3d
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta SELL No 97¢ $5 3d
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta SELL No 97¢ $5 3d
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta SELL No 97¢ $22 3d
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta SELL No 97¢ $1 3d
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta SELL No 97¢ $2 3d
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta SELL No 97¢ $8 3d
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta SELL No 97¢ $1 3d
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta SELL No 97¢ $4 3d
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta SELL No 97¢ $24 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $1,025 8d
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $6 9d
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $10 9d
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta SELL No 97¢ $97 10d
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $0 10d
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $3 11d
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $0 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,022.77 · official $2,022.77 (match) · 1228 history records