Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd578…4d58
crypto · 1481 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$159 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$288 · open −$71
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$45
Realized−$288
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses1113 / 366
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1479 / 1481
History coverage24d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day76.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 1479 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$71
14 days−$374
30 days−$288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Up 11¢ 4¢ $108 $45 −$63 (-59%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 14 $42 −$31 -73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +40%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $26 +$16 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $17 +$7 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +24%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +56%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 4PM ET Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +56%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 08 $15 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% −$165
sports 7% −$81
other 1% −$67
world 1% −$23
finance 0% −$12
weather 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 29m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $7 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 32m
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) BUY Miami Marlins 3¢ $10 32m
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) BUY Miami Marlins 68¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $11 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 54m
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) SELL Miami Marlins 39¢ $11 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 98¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $26 1h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) BUY Miami Marlins 10¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 1¢ $10 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 80¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $7 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 95¢ $11 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 79¢ $12 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $17 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 249 -2.7% -12.0% 82% 30% -17.8%
≤30d 1479 -2.5% -11.8% 75% 41% -12.3%
≤90d 1479 -2.5% -11.8% 75% 41% -12.3%
all 1479 -2.5% -11.8% 75% 41% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover76.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 41% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 30% -20.7%
15% -27.9% 18% -28.4%
20% -35.0% 9% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.44 · official $45.44 (match) · 3155 history records