Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:13:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd578…94de other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$5
world 32% −$1
crypto 14% $0
politics 10% +$1
culture 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.6% -11.0% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 4 -1.6% -11.0% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 4 -1.6% -11.0% 25% 0% -10.0%
all 29 -3.7% -12.9% 31% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 3% -10.2%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.8%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage298d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $87 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $25 $0 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $8 $0 -5%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 19 $26 $0 +1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $4 −$2 -53%
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 21 $2 $0 -3%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 19 $2 $0 +14%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 13 $29 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 02 $31 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $2 $0 -14%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22? Aug 21 $4 −$1 -36%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2025 US Open? Aug 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 21 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $4 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $22 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $9 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $28 5h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $7 5h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 10h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 10h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $13 12h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 12h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $25 19h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $25 21h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 30h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 31h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 40h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $21 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 42h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $30 45h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $8 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $6 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $30 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $28 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $10 2d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $8 176d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 81¢ $4 179d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 80¢ $27 201d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 80¢ $27 201d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 201d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.84 · official $8.84 (match) · 103 history records