Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:06:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D5 0xd579…238a world 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$2 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate48%20W / 22L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$5
other 23% $0
politics 12% $0
sports 4% +$2
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -0.8% -10.3% 36% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 14 -0.8% -10.3% 36% 0% -9.2%
all 42 +1.1% -8.6% 48% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 2% -9.0%
10% -17.3% 2% -17.7%
15% -25.3% 2% -25.6%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.35 per $1 lost it wins $5.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses20 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage465d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 45¢ 48¢ $39 $42 +$3 (+7%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $43 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $79 +$2 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $9 $0 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $66 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $46 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -12%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 29 $13 $0 -0%
Starmer out before July? May 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $15 $0 +2%
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days? Apr 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? Apr 17 $11 $0 +2%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top Champions League scorer? Apr 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $3 +$1 +49%
Will Freddie Freeman lead the MLB in RBI's? Apr 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 13 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Everton be relegated? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 06 $14 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? Mar 27 $15 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 23 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 16 $2 $0 -7%
Will 'Novocaine' gross more than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 45¢ $39 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $39 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $6 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $33 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $20 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $11 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $31 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $43 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $43 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $43 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.83 · official $42.20 (match) · 140 history records