Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:19:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd57b…8a75 other 62 markets active 8h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$105 (-1%) realized −$105 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate18%11W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 76% −$14
politics 15% −$12
other 6% −$9
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% −$72
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -5.4% -14.4% 11% 0% -13.1%
≤90d 51 -16.3% -24.3% 16% 6% -14.4%
all 61 -13.8% -22.0% 18% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 5% -10.1%
10% -29.5% 5% -18.7%
15% -36.3% 3% -26.5%
20% -42.5% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses11 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage552d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $7 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $43 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $110 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? May 06 $26 $0 +1%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $59 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $60 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $59 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $60 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $55 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $8 +$5 +60%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 +$7 +79%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $12 +$4 +29%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 06 $43 +$2 +4%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 01 $22 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 7h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 8h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 24h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 25h
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 26h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $5 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 6d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $7 7d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $7 7d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL No 100¢ $9 8d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY No 100¢ $9 8d
Will Niger win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 9d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 17d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 20d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.88 · official $26.88 (match) · 215 history records