Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:58:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd57d…f5d4
other · 509 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$425 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$351 · open +$58
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$376
Realized+$351
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses397 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions10
Markets (closed)499 / 509
History coverage191d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 10 History 499 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days+$238
14 days+$280
30 days+$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 80¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+37%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 33¢ 58¢ $34 $59 +$26 (+77%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 34¢ 56¢ $37 $59 +$22 (+61%)
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 99¢ 98¢ $53 $52 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 54¢ 50¢ $53 $50 −$3 (-6%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 95¢ 85¢ $53 $48 −$5 (-10%)
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting? Yes 80¢ 74¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-8%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in Second Half No 64¢ 80¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+26%)
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $41 −$8 -19%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 Jun 14 $53 +$51 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $53 +$51 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 14 $18 +$3 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 14 $53 +$103 +193%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $54 +$36 +67%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $53 +$33 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $53 +$143 +268%
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) Jun 14 $47 +$19 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $53 +$33 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $54 +$45 +83%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $54 +$52 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 14 $53 +$9 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 14 $53 +$43 +81%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $53 +$26 +50%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) Jun 14 $26 +$1 +3%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $53 +$8 +16%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $54 −$54 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $27 +$8 +29%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $10 +$14 +138%
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $53 +$5 +10%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $27 +$32 +119%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $53 +$39 +73%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $53 +$14 +27%
Will Justin Rose finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 13 $7 $0 +3%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $45 +$22 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $53 +$31 +60%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $45 +$19 +41%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 +16%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $11 +$14 +128%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $17 +$1 +8%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $242 −$38 -16%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $96 +$4 +4%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $58 +$72 +123%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 77% −$7
crypto 14% +$5
sports 3% +$404
culture 3% +$2
weather 2% $0
tech 2% +$4
politics 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
world 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $33 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 61¢ $53 8h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 54¢ $54 9h
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) BUY Knicks 85¢ $53 9h
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 63¢ $53 9h
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) BUY Knicks 85¢ $18 9h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-6.5) BUY PortlandFire 97¢ $26 9h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 50¢ $53 9h
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $20 9h
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $34 9h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 49¢ $53 10h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $53 10h
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Knicks 59¢ $54 10h
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) BUY Knicks 71¢ $10 10h
Spread: Spurs (-19.5) BUY Knicks 71¢ $37 10h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 BUY Under 61¢ $53 10h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 86¢ $53 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +13.5% +2.7% 65% 55% -0.2%
≤30d 97 -2.8% -12.0% 65% 33% -0.9%
≤90d 213 -0.1% -9.6% 82% 16% -8.1%
all 499 +0.2% -9.4% 80% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 7% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 5% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 4% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $376.32 · official $376.32 (match) · 1301 history records