Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D5 0xd581…2b59 other 32 markets active 3h ago coverage 627d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,623 (+1%) realized +$370 · open +$1,253
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,739per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$371est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$20,252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 627d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$7,687
crypto 13% +$9,068
sports 11% +$12,657
politics 7% +$8,915
world 5% −$9,761
economics 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +78.4% +61.4% 57% 43% +30.5%
≤30d 13 +45.9% +32.0% 54% 38% +23.5%
≤90d 25 +15.2% +4.3% 36% 28% -19.0%
all 29 +21.7% +10.1% 45% 38% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.1% 38% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here -0.5% 38% -12.3%
15% -10.1% 38% -20.8%
20% -18.9% 34% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$9,575) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +17% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5,821 vs −$3,990 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

627d coverage
Net worth$20,252
Realized+$370
Unrealized+$1,253
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$371
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage627d
Avg bet$5,739
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $9,000 $10,158 +$1,158 (+13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $5,000 $6,060 +$1,060 (+21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $5,000 $4,034 −$966 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,028 +$1,676 +83%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $3,052 +$4,026 +132%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $2,571 +$198 +8%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $6,955 −$1,850 -27%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $2,984 −$1,223 -41%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $1,020 −$41 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19 Jun 22 $1,536 +$6,117 +398%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $9,575 +$957 +10%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3,054 −$1,590 -52%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2,041 +$4,410 +216%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $9,965 +$7,295 +73%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,443 −$1,443 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 15 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Apr 13 $9,761 −$9,761 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 Tour Championship? Apr 13 $3,360 −$3,360 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? Apr 13 $6,280 −$6,280 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Apr 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 U.S. Open? Apr 13 $16,930 −$16,930 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 PGA Championship? Apr 13 $10,225 −$10,225 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $14,500 +$25,216 +174%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $400 −$301 -75%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $7,500 −$5,033 -67%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $215 +$1,189 +553%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 US Open? Sep 08 $9,400 +$6,807 +72%
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet? Sep 07 $39 +$24 +61%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in November? Nov 11 $21,200 +$8,870 +42%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $12,349 +$8,891 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $3,052 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2,769 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2,149 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1,760 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $2,028 3h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $980 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,020 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $2,048 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $5,130 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19 BUY 20¢ $1,536 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 83¢ $7,036 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $1,464 8d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $3,054 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 41¢ $2,098 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $2,539 8d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2,041 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $7,170 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5,126 11d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 57¢ $9,965 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $1,443 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2,571 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $2,984 12d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2,957 12d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6,955 13d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes 100¢ $39,716 75d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes $99 75d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes $464 75d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL Yes $387 75d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 18¢ $3,000 75d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 57¢ $306 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,252.44 · official $20,252.44 (match) · 100 history records