Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:53:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd584…8107 world 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,332 (+17%) realized +$3,547 · open −$215
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate72%13W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$940per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,702now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$417
7 days+$1,829
14 days+$1,829
30 days+$2,709
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 57% +$1,829
world 43% +$1,189
other 1% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +38.0% +24.9% 100% 100% +27.5%
≤30d 4 +25.6% +13.6% 100% 75% +16.2%
≤90d 18 +6.4% -3.8% 72% 39% +7.7%
all 18 +6.4% -3.8% 72% 39% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 39% +7.7%
10% -13.0% 28% -2.7%
15% -21.4% 11% -12.1%
20% -29.1% 6% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,503) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$258 vs −$20 · ×12.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×32.73 per $1 lost it wins $32.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$1,702
Realized+$3,547
Unrealized−$215
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses13 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage72d
Avg bet$940
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 78¢ $717 $958 +$241 (+34%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 37¢ 24¢ $1,100 $705 −$395 (-36%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ $100 $39 −$61 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $1,800 +$417 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $2,670 +$1,412 +53%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $3,555 +$840 +24%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1,503 +$39 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 28 $160 +$10 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $2,684 +$251 +9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Apr 23 $500 −$21 -4%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 21 $822 +$73 +9%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 21 $150 +$13 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 21 $200 −$11 -5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 21 $580 +$217 +37%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 21 $1,020 +$10 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 20 $108 +$12 +11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 19 $800 −$20 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 18 $200 +$26 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 18 $100 +$29 +29%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 13 $200 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1,503 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $200 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $300 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $1,222 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $312 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $95 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $200 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $877 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $1,984 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,040 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $180 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $150 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $1,200 11d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $1,000 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 62¢ $727 17d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $586 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $241 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $563 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $1,104 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $473 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $2,141 19d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $100 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $300 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $500 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $200 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $500 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1,542 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,702.45 · official $1,702.45 (match) · 167 history records