Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:17:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd586…87cf sports 242 markets active 0h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,128 (-8%) realized −$1,128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%107W / 134L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$207
7 days−$220
14 days−$178
30 days−$2,767
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$1,097
other 7% −$45
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -21.7% -29.2% 47% 19% -13.1%
≤30d 148 -74.8% -77.2% 14% 7% -39.7%
≤90d 148 -74.8% -77.2% 14% 7% -39.7%
all 241 -14.8% -22.9% 44% 37% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 37% -16.9%
10% -30.3% 32% -24.9%
15% -37.0% 27% -32.1%
20% -43.2% 22% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late -69% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$24 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$1,128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses107 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)241 / 242
History coverage267d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Under 95¢ 94¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $80 +$2 +2%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $121 +$1 +1%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $20 $0 -0%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $832 +$2 +0%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $530 −$2 -0%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $437 −$5 -1%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $123 −$2 -1%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $300 −$72 -24%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $233 −$11 -5%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $50 −$3 -5%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $80 +$2 +2%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $11 $0 +2%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $86 −$20 -23%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $280 −$128 -46%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $430 +$7 +2%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $570 +$8 +2%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $94 +$2 +2%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $532 +$10 +2%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $204 +$4 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $20 +$49 +238%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$8 +40%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 18 $11 +$5 +45%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$10 +32%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$1 -8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$10 +32%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$28 +140%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-11.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $30 +$34 +114%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $358 −$16 -4%
Kings vs. Bucks Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Warriors vs. Pacers Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Hawks Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-16.5) Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Hornets vs. Pacers Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Jazz (-4.5) Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Jazz vs. Nets: O/U 232.5 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 76¢ $39 1m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $46 1m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 76¢ $1 1m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 76¢ $1 1m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $45 4m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 87¢ $26 4m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $49 4m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 94¢ $49 4m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $40 4m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 98¢ $20 4m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 73¢ $40 9m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $26 9m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $49 9m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 86¢ $29 9m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 94¢ $46 9m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $20 10m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 87¢ $20 11m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $39 12m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 87¢ $1 12m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $46 15m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $50 15m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $50 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $50 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $50 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 96¢ $50 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $50 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 95¢ $49 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 94¢ $50 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 93¢ $49 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 93¢ $49 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.11 · official $49.11 (match) · 979 history records