Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:10:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd586…226c weather 122 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$40 (-3%) realized −$36 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate57%68W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 89% −$58
other 9% −$3
world 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-47.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 118 -42.3% -47.8% 57% 1% -14.4%
all 120 -42.4% -47.9% 57% 2% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.9% 2% -15.2%
10% -52.8% 0% -23.3%
15% -57.4% 0% -30.7%
20% -61.6% 0% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses68 / 52
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage92d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sergey Brin be 2nd richest person on December 31? No 90¢ 60¢ $13 $8 −$4 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May? Jun 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 20? Apr 28 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on April 20? Apr 21 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 20? Apr 21 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 20? Apr 21 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 20? Apr 21 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Apr 20 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on April 20? Apr 20 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 20? Apr 20 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on April 19? Apr 20 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 18? Apr 19 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 18? Apr 19 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 18? Apr 19 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or higher on April 18? Apr 19 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 18? Apr 19 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on April 18? Apr 19 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 69°F or below on April 18? Apr 19 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 17? Apr 18 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ap Apr 18 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 17? Apr 18 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 17? Apr 18 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 17? Apr 18 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on Apri Apr 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on April 16? Apr 17 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 16? Apr 17 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 16? Apr 17 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 16? Apr 17 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on April 16? Apr 17 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on April 15? Apr 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 64°F or higher on Apr Apr 16 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 15? Apr 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 15? Apr 16 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 56-57°F on Ap Apr 16 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 15? Apr 16 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 15? Apr 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on Apri Apr 15 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 14? Apr 15 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on April 14? Apr 15 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 14? Apr 15 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 15? Apr 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 14? Apr 15 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C or below on April 13? Apr 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on April 13 Apr 14 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 13? Apr 14 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on April 13? Apr 14 $10 $0 -1%
Will "Temptation Island: Season 10" be the #2 US Netflix show this wee Apr 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 12? Apr 13 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 12? Apr 13 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on April 12? Apr 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 12? Apr 13 $13 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May? BUY No 100¢ $60 20d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 20? BUY No 1¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 20? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 59d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on April 20? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 60d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $12 60d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $11 60d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $14 60d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $14 60d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $12 60d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 20? BUY No 99¢ $14 60d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $15 61d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri BUY No 98¢ $15 61d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 18? BUY No 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on April 18? BUY No 99¢ $11 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.36 · official $38.34 (match) · 320 history records