Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:27:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

D5 0xd588…53bb other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$28 (-3%) realized −$36 · open +$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$68per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$709now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 129d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-1.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	4	+8.5%	-1.8%	50%	50%	-43.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.8%	50%	-43.9%
10%	-11.2%	50%	-49.2%
15%	-19.8%	50%	-54.1%
20%	-27.6%	50%	-58.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$35 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.46 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage

Net worth$709

Realized−$36

Unrealized+$8

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions8

Markets (closed)4 / 12

History coverage129d

Avg bet$68

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	63¢	62¢	$164	$163	−$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$142	$140	−$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	80¢	81¢	$100	$102	+$2 (+2%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$100	$101	+$1 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	13¢	$57	$65	+$8 (+14%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$60	$59	−$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$50	$52	+$2 (+3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	27¢	26¢	$28	$27	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	Feb 11	$30	−$30	-99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	Feb 11	$20	+$21	+105%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	Feb 11	$40	−$39	-99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	Feb 11	$9	+$11	+129%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	58¢	$61	1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	27¢	$29	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	63¢	$65	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$146	2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$59	2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$51	5d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	76¢	$101	5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	80¢	$101	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	63¢	$101	5d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$10	128d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$20	128d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$20	128d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$20	128d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$20	128d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$9	128d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $709.28 · official $709.30 (match) · 23 history records