Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd588…a67b crypto 203 markets active 5d ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$346 (-5%) realized −$346 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%83W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$47
14 days−$450
30 days−$702
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$702
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -29.0% -35.8% 40% 40% -32.9%
≤30d 203 +14.6% +3.7% 41% 37% -18.0%
≤90d 203 +14.6% +3.7% 41% 37% -18.0%
all 203 +14.6% +3.7% 41% 37% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.7% 37% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -6.3% 31% -25.8%
15% -15.3% 27% -33.0%
20% -23.6% 22% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$24 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$346
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses83 / 120
Open positions0
Markets (closed)203 / 203
History coverage18d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 203 Trades
no open positions (81 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $140 −$44 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$11 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $37 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +145%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$11 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$16 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$4 +195%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +74%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$5 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 10 $19 −$19 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $134 −$130 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $101 +$26 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $25 −$24 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$7 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $65 +$149 +231%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$9 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$8 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$21 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$100 +945%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $47 +$56 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $47 −$39 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$8 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$9 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$27 +130%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $23 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $22 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $47 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $42 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $41 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $22 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $8 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.00 (match) · 646 history records