Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd589…7ca1 politics 164 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$260 (-0%) realized −$262 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate19%31W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$904per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$559now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$12
14 days−$22
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$70
other 39% +$160
sports 15% −$372
world 2% +$3
tech 2% +$1
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 -3.9% -13.0% 9% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 81 +0.3% -9.2% 7% 4% -9.7%
all 162 +2.2% -7.5% 19% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 11% -9.7%
10% -16.4% 10% -18.3%
15% -24.5% 9% -26.2%
20% -31.9% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,225) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$12 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$559
Realized−$262
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses31 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)162 / 164
History coverage157d
Avg bet$904
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $288 $290 +$2 (+1%)
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $269 $269 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,570 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $1,149 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,337 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $1,172 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $976 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,131 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $3,022 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,014 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,394 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,713 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,042 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $64 +$51 +79%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,285 −$3 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $3,493 −$5 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,744 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,702 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $216 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 02 $401 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,203 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $1,093 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $322 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $524 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 25 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 22 $767 −$1 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 22 $947 −$1 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $54 +$97 +180%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $662 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $763 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 10 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $978 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $3,261 −$4 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $2,332 −$3 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 08 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $1,174 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,862 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,691 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $809 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $897 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $269 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $397 2h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $397 4h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $289 44h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $289 46h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $223 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $224 4d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $442 4d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $442 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $455 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $455 5d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $506 6d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $506 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $577 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $578 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $479 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $480 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $574 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $575 8d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $606 8d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $607 9d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $81 9d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $207 9d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $765 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $766 12d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $633 12d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $634 13d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $706 13d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $707 13d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $876 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $558.99 · official $558.99 (match) · 549 history records