Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:16:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D5 0xd589…27c2 sports 496 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 134d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$34,678 (-15%) realized −$34,705 · open +$27
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%264W / 226L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$457per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$1,319est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$430now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 135d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$6,153
other 1% +$1,786
world 0% −$530
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -54.7% -59.1% 18% 18% -31.8%
≤30d 73 -10.5% -19.0% 44% 44% -27.1%
≤90d 283 -1.4% -10.8% 49% 48% -16.9%
all 490 +1.0% -8.6% 54% 44% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 44% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 43% -20.0%
15% -25.3% 42% -27.7%
20% -32.7% 41% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$541) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$335 vs −$415 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$430
Realized−$34,705
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses264 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1,319
Open positions6
Markets (closed)490 / 496
History coverage135d ⚠
Avg bet$457
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 490 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 48¢ 50¢ $233 $240 +$7 (+3%)
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 175.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $88 $89 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 72¢ $61 $75 +$14 (+24%)
Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5) New York Liberty 52¢ 74¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+43%)
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) Dallas Wings 52¢ 53¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 Under 50¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Jun 18 $387 −$6 -1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $530 −$530 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $417 −$410 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $260 −$260 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $549 +$450 +82%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 14 $182 −$182 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 14 $218 −$218 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $572 −$572 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $713 +$837 +117%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $358 +$358 +100%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 12 $16 −$1 -6%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 12 $45 +$42 +92%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $14 +$10 +72%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 +$3 +75%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $434 −$264 -61%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 168.5 Jun 11 $387 +$358 +92%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 169.5 Jun 10 $358 −$20 -6%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $301 +$399 +133%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented b Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 09 $1 +$1 +82%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 Jun 09 $275 +$247 +90%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 07 $352 −$352 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 07 $418 −$418 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 07 $446 −$368 -83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $723 −$723 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 163.5 Jun 07 $113 −$21 -18%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $173 +$182 +105%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $173 +$182 +105%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 06 $1 $0 +49%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $247 +$228 +92%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty Jun 04 $34 +$16 +47%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 04 $510 −$431 -85%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5) Jun 03 $28 +$26 +92%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $600 +$400 +67%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5 Jun 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 167.5 Jun 02 $530 −$530 -100%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 02 $202 +$25 +13%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $214 +$197 +92%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky May 30 $33 +$38 +117%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 28 $150 +$50 +33%
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire: O/U 170.5 May 28 $329 +$269 +82%
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm May 28 $375 +$307 +82%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx May 28 $127 −$127 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 27 $182 +$198 +108%
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm May 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 May 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) May 26 $81 −$81 -100%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-3.5) May 26 $78 −$78 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) BUY Dallas Wings 52¢ $11 14m
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 175.5 BUY Under 52¢ $11 14m
Spread: New York Liberty (-3.5) BUY New York Liberty 52¢ $11 15m
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 SELL Under 45¢ $38 1h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 175.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 1h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 175.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 1h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 175.5 BUY Under 52¢ $29 1h
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 175.5 BUY Under 52¢ $45 1h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) SELL Atlanta Dream 52¢ $382 13h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 52¢ $387 15h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 BUY Under 50¢ $4 17h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 BUY Under 50¢ $28 17h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 BUY Under 50¢ $1 20h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 BUY Under 50¢ $10 25h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 48¢ $236 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $530 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $417 3d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $8 3d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $13 3d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 3d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $37 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $181 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $11 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $2 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 4d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $62 4d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $549 4d
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire BUY Dallas Wings 68¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $430.49 · official $430.39 (match) · 3500 history records