Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D5 0xd589…81e1 crypto 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$26 (-5%) realized −$9 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$39
crypto 39% +$49
sports 7% +$45
world 4% −$20
weather 4% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 47% +2.2%
≤30d 17 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 47% +2.2%
≤90d 17 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 47% +2.2%
all 17 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 47% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 47% +2.2%
10% -20.9% 47% -7.6%
15% -28.6% 41% -16.5%
20% -35.6% 35% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$14 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$23 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 +$36 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$11 +44%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$18 +86%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 28¢ $20 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 12h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 37¢ $20 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 39h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 43h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 41¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 43¢ $6 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $106 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.94 · official $102.94 · 37 history records