Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:12:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd58d…f0e0 sports 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (149 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$46 (-6%) realized −$43 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%29W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day149.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$36
crypto 16% −$29
other 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (149 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -16.0% -24.0% 47% 37% -18.4%
≤30d 62 -16.0% -24.0% 47% 37% -18.4%
≤90d 62 -16.0% -24.0% 47% 37% -18.4%
all 62 -16.0% -24.0% 47% 37% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover149.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.0% 37% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.3% 27% -26.2%
15% -37.9% 19% -33.3%
20% -44.0% 15% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$43
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses29 / 33
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)62 / 65
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day149.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Under 54¢ 52¢ $31 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 53¢ 54¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Cleveland Guardians 51¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 31¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $23 +$33 +141%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 24 $2 +$2 +102%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 24 $1 $0 +10%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $5 +$1 +28%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $5 −$3 -64%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$13 +40%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +21%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$4 +59%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $1 +$1 +72%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 24 $3 +$1 +33%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5) Jun 24 $4 +$1 +28%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 24 $4 $0 +8%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 24 $33 −$30 -93%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 24 $36 +$30 +83%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $88 −$22 -24%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5 Jun 24 $1 +$1 +108%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 24 $49 +$7 +15%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $1 +$2 +214%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $6 $0 -3%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $2 $0 +15%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 24 $3 $0 +10%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $4 +$1 +19%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $6 −$4 -66%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $17 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $2 −$1 -48%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $29 $0 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $35 −$13 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 53¢ $1 8m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Baltimore Orioles 87¢ $23 31m
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 91¢ $56 31m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 51¢ $1 38m
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 76¢ $6 39m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 51¢ $1 45m
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 57¢ $6 46m
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $1 50m
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 60¢ $1 51m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 54¢ $1 52m
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 47¢ $1 56m
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 27¢ $1 56m
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1 56m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 82¢ $1 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 22¢ $1 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Baltimore Orioles 82¢ $48 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) SELL Qatar 6¢ $2 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 16¢ $1 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 16¢ $0 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 16¢ $4 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 2¢ $5 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 53¢ $1 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 23¢ $1 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 23¢ $1 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 23¢ $1 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 23¢ $0 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 23¢ $1 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 26¢ $1 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 7¢ $5 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 51¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.96 · official $35.96 (match) · 199 history records