Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:43:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd592…9618 sports 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,170 (+16%) realized +$4,173 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%35W / 44L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$317est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,722
7 days+$6,408
14 days+$6,329
30 days+$4,257
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$5,403
other 4% −$1,149
world 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +11.7% +1.1% 64% 64% +26.1%
≤30d 78 -15.4% -23.4% 45% 45% +5.6%
≤90d 78 -15.4% -23.4% 45% 45% +5.6%
all 79 -16.5% -24.4% 44% 44% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 44% +5.4%
10% -31.6% 41% -4.6%
15% -38.2% 38% -13.9%
20% -44.3% 34% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -34% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$358 vs −$189 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$352
Realized+$4,173
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses35 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$317
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage145d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 55¢ 55¢ $355 $352 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 18 $166 +$96 +58%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $160 +$104 +65%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $69 −$67 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $91 −$89 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $301 −$297 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $331 +$59 +18%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $401 +$242 +60%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $1,835 +$892 +49%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 16 $1,707 +$1,068 +63%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $1,514 +$816 +54%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $797 −$789 -99%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $317 −$313 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $1,399 +$219 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,805 +$3,101 +172%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $895 +$1,104 +123%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $199 +$171 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $193 +$333 +172%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $86 +$113 +132%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,111 −$1,097 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $951 +$245 +26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $812 +$140 +17%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $456 +$352 +77%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $254 +$205 +81%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $159 +$95 +60%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $63 −$62 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $79 −$77 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $79 −$78 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $79 −$77 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $30 −$29 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner May 30 $78 −$76 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,172 −$1,149 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $793 +$455 +57%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 30 $487 +$307 +63%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Two Move (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern May 30 $87 +$401 +460%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $77 −$77 -99%
Dota 2: Team G vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Euro May 30 $129 −$127 -98%
Dota 2: Team G vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $98 −$15 -15%
Dota 2: Team G vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $49 −$48 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $115 −$113 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $115 −$113 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $88 −$87 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $710 −$700 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $529 +$173 +33%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $229 +$396 +173%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $164 −$161 -98%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - BC Game Masters May 25 $451 −$442 -98%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs Falcons Force (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se May 25 $804 −$800 -100%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - United21 Playoffs May 25 $633 +$430 +68%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 25 $351 +$375 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $360 1h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: BUY Evil Geniuses Academy 63¢ $166 6h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Team Evictix 100¢ $264 6h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Team Evictix 60¢ $160 6h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 22¢ $69 8h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 23¢ $30 8h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 27¢ $20 8h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 27¢ $10 8h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 25¢ $31 8h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 60¢ $301 41h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ $389 41h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 99¢ $643 41h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 61¢ $401 42h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 52¢ $331 42h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 99¢ $2,727 42h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 68¢ $490 43h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 65¢ $1,345 43h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs SELL TDK 100¢ $2,331 43h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 64¢ $1,514 46h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 64¢ $196 46h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 66¢ $601 47h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY Mentality Monster 54¢ $317 47h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage SELL Fnatic 99¢ $1,619 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 85¢ $1,399 2d
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ODDIK 59¢ $594 2d
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ODDIK 62¢ $1,113 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 99¢ $4,906 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $304 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 35¢ $95 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 35¢ $388 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.61 · official $351.61 (match) · 136 history records