Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:26:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd594…98c4 sports 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,162 (+8%) realized +$2,464 · open +$698
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%59W / 73L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$327est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,498now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$392
14 days+$1,823
30 days+$2,110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$1,539
other 13% +$2,065
politics 1% −$14
crypto 0% −$81
finance 0% +$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +10.3% -0.2% 50% 50% +12.9%
≤30d 23 +21.8% +10.2% 65% 65% +28.9%
≤90d 123 -18.9% -26.7% 42% 41% -3.6%
all 132 -15.9% -23.9% 45% 42% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 42% -3.0%
10% -31.2% 39% -12.3%
15% -37.9% 33% -20.8%
20% -44.0% 27% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -28% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$265 vs −$174 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$1,498
Realized+$2,464
Unrealized+$698
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses59 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$327
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage230d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ 96¢ $800 $1,498 +$698 (+87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 +$197 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $385 +$305 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $308 +$571 +186%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $82 −$80 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $509 −$500 -98%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $228 +$172 +75%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $322 +$178 +55%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $203 +$142 +70%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $203 +$161 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $205 +$306 +149%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $146 +$159 +109%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $453 +$116 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $356 +$97 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $101 +$109 +108%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 07 $103 −$103 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $256 +$129 +50%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $202 +$67 +33%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 02 $312 +$488 +156%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Zhang Mingyang win by KO or TKO? May 30 $0 $0 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $452 −$448 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy May 17 $1,028 +$331 +32%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 16 $666 +$363 +54%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 16 $506 −$500 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh May 16 $368 +$161 +44%
Will "Super Bowl" be said on ICEMAN? May 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $2,990 +$3,089 +103%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD end in a draw? May 12 $111 −$108 -98%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $709 −$699 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $2 −$1 -97%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 10 $174 +$98 +56%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $506 −$500 -99%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $710 +$519 +73%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $558 +$143 +26%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $502 +$54 +11%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $500 −$491 -98%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $506 −$498 -98%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $796 −$796 -100%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $504 +$299 +59%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $2 +$3 +139%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 02 $201 +$328 +163%
UFC Fight Night: Robert Bryczek vs. Cam Rowston (Middleweight, Main Ca May 02 $138 −$135 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Kevin Christian (Light Heavyweight, P May 02 $103 −$102 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Vince Morales vs. Colby Thicknesse (Bantamweight, Pre May 02 $13 +$1 +5%
UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Ben Johnston (Middleweight, Prelims) May 02 $277 −$274 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 27 $120 −$120 -100%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $812 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $203 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $385 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $204 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 23¢ $82 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $124 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $3 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $39 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $39 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $14 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $9 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $6 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $51 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $8 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 42¢ $509 5d
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 35¢ $102 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $47 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $8 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $29 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $30 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL No 99¢ $386 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $228 8d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $322 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 67¢ $201 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 33¢ $205 10d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 55¢ $203 11d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $203 11d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main SELL Gabriel Bonfim 100¢ $305 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,498.39 · official $1,302.27 · 1789 history records