Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:59:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd599…29a8 other 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate62%39W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$10
crypto 24% −$3
world 10% $0
politics 10% +$7
economics 5% −$2
tech 4% +$1
sports 3% −$3
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -7.2% -16.0% 60% 60% -10.5%
≤90d 23 -1.8% -11.2% 65% 35% -9.0%
all 63 -1.2% -10.6% 62% 24% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 24% -10.2%
10% -19.1% 13% -18.8%
15% -26.9% 10% -26.6%
20% -34.1% 5% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses39 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)63 / 84
History coverage140d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 52¢ 20¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-61%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 91¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 64¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+55%)
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 95¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 02 $9 −$9 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? Jun 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $19 +$3 +16%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 19 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 19 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $11 +$2 +14%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 05 $9 +$4 +39%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 05 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? Apr 29 $13 +$1 +6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 29 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 29 $16 +$1 +6%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Apr 25 $22 −$14 -65%
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30? Apr 18 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in March? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Apr 02 $9 $0 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 02 $10 $0 +4%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 02 $20 $0 -1%
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 02 $16 +$3 +16%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $21 +$10 +47%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 22 $44 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 14? Mar 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $17 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Mar 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Mar 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Mar 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Mar 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in February? Mar 04 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Mar 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 28 $14 +$1 +6%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 28 $4 +$1 +25%
Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 28 $5 $0 +8%
Fabric FDV above $600M one day after launch? Feb 28 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 28 $32 $0 -0%
Another US bank failure by February 28? Feb 26 $2 $0 +9%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in February? Feb 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by February 15? Feb 22 $4 $0 +3%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 22 $56 $0 -0%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $2 +$2 +111%
Will Opinion launch a token by June 30, 2026? Feb 13 $10 $0 +1%
Big Game: 'NE Dynasty' Parlay Feb 11 $2 $0 +9%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase February 3-9? Feb 11 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Feb 11 $10 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $26 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL No 98¢ $26 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $26 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $27 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $27 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $27 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $28 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $29 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $29 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $18 1h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? SELL Yes 88¢ $11 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $13 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $20 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $22 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 84¢ $23 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $24 8d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $11 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 13d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 13d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $10 13d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.27 · official $39.12 · 312 history records