Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd59b…0ae3 sports 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (137 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$108 (+2%) realized +$240 · open −$132
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate41%32W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day136.6pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$165
other 11% −$113
world 2% −$56
crypto 2% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (137 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -27.3% -34.2% 41% 22% -8.2%
≤30d 79 -27.3% -34.2% 41% 22% -8.2%
≤90d 79 -27.3% -34.2% 41% 22% -8.2%
all 79 -27.3% -34.2% 41% 22% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover136.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.2% 22% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -40.5% 18% -16.9%
15% -46.2% 16% -25.0%
20% -51.5% 11% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$240
Unrealized−$132
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses32 / 47
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions7
Markets (closed)79 / 86
History coverage3d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day136.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Paulo Dos Santos 66¢ $132 $0 −$132 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $74 +$4 +5%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $223 +$18 +8%
Royan: Franco Ribero vs Pavel Kotov Jun 16 $22 −$2 -9%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $30 −$9 -30%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $216 +$20 +10%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $478 −$46 -10%
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $10 +$6 +62%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $206 +$5 +2%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $234 +$12 +5%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $229 +$5 +2%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $145 +$84 +58%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $98 −$56 -57%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $46 −$22 -47%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $106 +$80 +75%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $23 −$4 -18%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $16 −$5 -32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$3 -53%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 −$1 -66%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $11 −$5 -44%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$13 +66%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 +$7 +13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 −$1 -49%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $40 −$31 -79%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $140 +$90 +64%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$23 -66%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$9 -88%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 +$4 +47%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $145 +$73 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $73 −$50 -68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$13 -65%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$6 -57%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$8 -84%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $115 +$3 +3%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $139 +$15 +11%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $47 +$5 +10%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $66 +$1 +2%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $59 +$32 +54%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$2 -39%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 $0 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 −$26 -88%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 $0 -29%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 5m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $5 8m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 12m
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $5 18m
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 19m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $5 20m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 21m
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas SELL Leo Raquillet 100¢ $78 22m
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Leo Raquillet 95¢ $61 25m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos SELL Santiago De La Fuente 100¢ $62 27m
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Leo Raquillet 93¢ $13 28m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Santiago De La Fuente 46¢ $1 37m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 69¢ $10 37m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 68¢ $5 37m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 76¢ $10 40m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Santiago De La Fuente 38¢ $5 43m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 67¢ $5 46m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 57¢ $5 47m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 47¢ $5 47m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Santiago De La Fuente 53¢ $5 48m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Santiago De La Fuente 47¢ $3 49m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Santiago De La Fuente 35¢ $2 50m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Santiago De La Fuente 33¢ $1 51m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 76¢ $5 52m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 68¢ $15 53m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 62¢ $5 53m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 70¢ $5 54m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Santiago De La Fuente 36¢ $5 55m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Santiago De La Fuente 25¢ $1 55m
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Santiago De La Fuente 25¢ $1 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.85 · official $49.85 (match) · 415 history records