Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:36:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd59b…0a03 sports 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$135 (+4%) realized +$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate58%35W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$22
14 days+$258
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$306
other 32% −$126
crypto 18% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +6.3% -3.8% 100% 0% -5.7%
≤30d 30 +24.4% +12.5% 60% 43% -1.1%
≤90d 35 +20.8% +9.3% 60% 40% -3.3%
all 60 +8.4% -1.9% 58% 32% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 32% -6.3%
10% -11.3% 22% -15.2%
15% -19.9% 15% -23.4%
20% -27.8% 12% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses35 / 25
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage143d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $421 +$13 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $131 +$85 +65%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 −$58 -82%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $20 +$4 +21%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $300 +$12 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $50 +$8 +15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $70 +$8 +12%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $241 +$46 +19%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$78 +307%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$70 +344%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 +$4 +6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$12 +596%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$6 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 25 $60 −$10 -17%
Heat vs. Celtics Apr 25 $110 −$19 -18%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $20 +$1 +7%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $10 +$2 +23%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 28 $20 −$5 -27%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Feb 21 $40 +$15 +38%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Feb 21 $140 +$6 +4%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Feb 21 $100 +$4 +4%
Clippers vs. Lakers Feb 21 $20 +$3 +14%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Feb 20 $40 +$3 +8%
Thunder vs. Lakers Feb 20 $120 +$11 +9%
Jazz vs. Heat Feb 10 $20 −$6 -32%
Bulls vs. Nets Feb 10 $25 −$9 -37%
Pistons vs. Hornets: O/U 224.5 Feb 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Pistons vs. Hornets Feb 10 $200 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 08 $120 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Feb 07 $80 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Feb 07 $80 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 07 $40 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $416 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 7d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 7d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 13¢ $13 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 8d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $61 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $10 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner SELL Team Falcons 52¢ $7 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 72¢ $10 8d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $292 8d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 87¢ $29 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 88¢ $29 8d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 95¢ $300 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 8d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $70 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $50 8d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 12d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 12d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 12d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 12d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records