Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:20:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd59b…e06c crypto 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,131 (-14%) realized −$2,128 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate60%38W / 25L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$26
14 days+$104
30 days+$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$1,491
crypto 42% −$519
other 3% −$1
world 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.2% -11.5% 60% 60% -3.1%
≤30d 16 +6.9% -3.3% 62% 62% +11.2%
≤90d 16 +6.9% -3.3% 62% 62% +11.2%
all 63 -5.9% -14.8% 60% 52% -21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 52% -21.6%
10% -23.0% 43% -29.1%
15% -30.4% 32% -36.0%
20% -37.2% 19% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$181 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$2,128
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses38 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)63 / 66
History coverage158d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 50¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $50 +$22 +44%
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Jun 28 $30 +$9 +29%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
France to score first vs. Norway? Jun 26 $51 +$28 +55%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $51 +$28 +55%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $31 +$39 +129%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $105 +$44 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $138 +$66 +48%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $83 +$90 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 07 $312 −$309 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 07 $1,301 −$687 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 07 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 07 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 05 $1,659 −$1,659 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 05 $300 +$18 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 05 $900 −$542 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 05 $300 −$81 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 05 $729 −$4 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 05 $170 +$31 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 05 $220 +$16 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 05 $200 +$110 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 05 $500 +$156 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 05 $200 +$56 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 05 $175 −$95 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 05 $80 +$102 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 05 $60 −$14 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 05 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 05 $20 +$9 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 05 $1,271 +$53 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 05 $210 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 05 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 05 $300 +$187 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 05 $10 +$17 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 05 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 05 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 05 $100 −$99 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 05 $515 +$210 +41%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Mar 04 $713 +$203 +28%
Knicks vs. Raptors Mar 04 $463 +$19 +4%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Mar 04 $160 +$72 +45%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 04 $545 +$78 +14%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 03 $300 +$245 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $30 2h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY South Africa 69¢ $50 25h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 2d
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) BUY Jordan 77¢ $30 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 3d
France to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $105 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $138 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 13d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 42¢ $51 14d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 15d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $83 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $312 114d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL JD Gaming 88¢ $312 114d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 85¢ $302 114d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Weibo Gaming 15¢ $302 114d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Weibo Gaming 51¢ $199 114d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Weibo Gaming 50¢ $800 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $50 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $100 114d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 80¢ $784 116d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 80¢ $314 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $500 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.33 · official $87.33 (match) · 182 history records