Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D5 0xd59b…5c85 sports 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$650 (+15%) realized +$573 · open +$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate63%36W / 21L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$777now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$388
14 days+$566
30 days+$566
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$231
sports 37% +$403
politics 18% +$19
crypto 1% +$21
world 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +3.9% -6.0% 58% 58% +8.1%
≤30d 57 +12.0% +1.4% 63% 61% +4.8%
≤90d 57 +12.0% +1.4% 63% 61% +4.8%
all 57 +12.0% +1.4% 63% 61% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 61% +4.8%
10% -8.3% 61% -5.3%
15% -17.2% 53% -14.4%
20% -25.3% 37% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$25 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$777
Realized+$573
Unrealized+$77
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses36 / 21
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions7
Markets (closed)57 / 64
History coverage13d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 85¢ $200 $233 +$33 (+16%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 92¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $100 $117 +$17 (+17%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 61¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 74¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+4%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Under 67¢ 62¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$20 +51%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 +$12 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $66 +$44 +67%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $51 −$15 -30%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 $0 -3%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $40 +$14 +35%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$18 +59%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$13 +123%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$25 +62%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$16 +78%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $56 +$32 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$1 -4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$1 -6%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$13 +129%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +43%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$12 +30%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $111 +$55 +49%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$8 +38%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 +$10 +48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $26 +$8 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$20 +101%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $41 +$53 +131%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $303 +$124 +41%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 −$97 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$91 -90%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $46 +$26 +58%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $26 +$29 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 4h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $20 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $110 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $35 14h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 45¢ $35 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 16h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $20 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 16h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Sweden 67¢ $10 16h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $10 16h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 16h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $20 24h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $23 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 25h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $10 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 42h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $20 42h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $20 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 42h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 42h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 96¢ $36 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $777.41 · official $777.41 (match) · 127 history records