Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:57:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D5 0xd59d…99a3 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover
Total PnL +$223 (+27%) realized +$230 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$28
sports 30% +$272
crypto 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+52.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +68.2% +52.2% 38% 34% +27.4%
≤30d 29 +68.2% +52.2% 38% 34% +27.4%
≤90d 29 +68.2% +52.2% 38% 34% +27.4%
all 29 +68.2% +52.2% 38% 34% +27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +52.2% 34% +27.4%
10% +37.6% 34% +15.2%
15% +24.3% 34% +4.1%
20% +12.2% 34% -6.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +68% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +138% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$22 · ×2.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized+$230
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage4d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 38¢ $30 $39 +$9 (+29%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$66 +321%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$178 +1735%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$27 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$49 +238%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$76 +250%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $55 +$3 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 +$122 +442%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$26 +65%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $16 +$40 +250%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $46 +$73 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $86 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 6h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 11h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 11h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 24h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 29h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 29h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 34h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $55 34h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 46h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.56 · official $89.89 · 43 history records