Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:17:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D5 0xd59f…8a8b crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$23 (+44%) realized +$23 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate45%10W / 12L

Drawdown24%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day57.0pace

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-20.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-12.0%	-20.4%	45%	45%	+21.6%
≤30d	22	-12.0%	-20.4%	45%	45%	+21.6%
≤90d	22	-12.0%	-20.4%	45%	45%	+21.6%
all	22	-12.0%	-20.4%	45%	45%	+21.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover57.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-20.4%	45%	+21.6%
10% ← realistic here	-28.0%	36%	+10.0%
15%	-34.9%	32%	-0.6%
20%	-41.3%	18%	-10.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 81% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -12% · $-wt +34% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -11% → late -13% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$6

Realized+$23

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses10 / 12

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 24

History coverage1d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day57.0

Drawdown24%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$2	+$1	+37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$1	-12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Jun 16	$1	+$1	+61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Jun 16	$2	−$1	-51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 16	$3	$0	-9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$1	+27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Jun 16	$1	+$1	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Jun 16	$2	+$1	+54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Jun 16	$1	$0	+11%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$12	+$21	+177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Jun 15	$1	$0	-8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Jun 15	$2	−$1	-31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-94%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	44¢	$3	34m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	31¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	SELL Up	1¢	$0	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	SELL Up	69¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	SELL Up	66¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	SELL Down	9¢	$0	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	SELL Down	76¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	SELL Down	86¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	SELL Up	26¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	SELL Up	79¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	SELL Up	66¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	SELL Down	46¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	SELL Up	26¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	SELL Down	59¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$1	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.78 · official $5.80 (match) · 57 history records