Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D5 0xd5a2…58fd other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$875 (+11%) realized +$899 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$474per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$740now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$639
7 days−$24
14 days+$473
30 days+$473
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$1,054
sports 43% −$228
politics 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.8% -10.2% 57% 57% -10.1%
≤30d 9 +7.1% -3.1% 67% 67% -1.9%
≤90d 16 +3.8% -6.1% 69% 62% +0.4%
all 16 +3.8% -6.1% 69% 62% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 62% +0.4%
10% -15.1% 38% -9.2%
15% -23.3% 25% -18.0%
20% -30.8% 6% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$188 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$740
Realized+$899
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage70d
Avg bet$474
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Over 64¢ 62¢ $764 $740 −$24 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $532 +$241 +45%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $854 −$409 -48%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $246 −$158 -64%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $670 −$313 -47%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $553 +$276 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $533 +$121 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $613 +$219 +36%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,003 +$144 +14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $649 +$353 +54%
Will Bulgaria win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 17 $227 +$45 +20%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $650 +$228 +35%
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $156 +$15 +9%
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $486 +$89 +18%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in fourth place in the first round of the May 07 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Apr 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $50 +$8 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $773 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $773 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $532 17h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 SELL Over 41¢ $444 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $88 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $246 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $854 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 26¢ $357 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $670 47h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $829 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $553 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $654 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $832 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $613 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $533 5d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $1,147 7d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $1,003 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,001 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $649 7d
Will Bulgaria win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 80¢ $95 35d
Will Bulgaria win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 85¢ $112 35d
Will Bulgaria win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 85¢ $7 35d
Will Bulgaria win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 85¢ $7 35d
Will Bulgaria win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? BUY Yes 85¢ $6 35d
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $878 35d
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 36d
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $636 36d
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 36d
Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 37d
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? SELL Yes 100¢ $575 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $740.45 · official $740.45 (match) · 59 history records