Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:45:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5a3…579f crypto 904 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$155 (+1%) realized +$155 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate85%765W / 139L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day93.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$101
14 days−$88
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 242 -2.1% -11.4% 82% 26% -13.3%
≤30d 904 -0.8% -10.2% 85% 25% -8.9%
≤90d 904 -0.8% -10.2% 85% 25% -8.9%
all 904 -0.8% -10.2% 85% 25% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 25% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 8% -17.6%
15% -26.7% 3% -25.5%
20% -33.8% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$155
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses765 / 139
Open positions0
Markets (closed)904 / 904
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day93.8
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 904 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$6 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records