Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:16:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D5 0xd5ac…0510 crypto 384 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$826 (-3%) realized −$827 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate86%328W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days−$265
14 days−$211
30 days−$701
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$477
other 25% +$98
crypto 7% −$505
world 2% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -1.4% -10.8% 97% 2% -11.8%
≤30d 153 -2.6% -11.9% 95% 1% -13.1%
≤90d 382 +7.2% -3.0% 86% 21% -12.9%
all 382 +7.2% -3.0% 86% 21% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 21% -12.9%
10% -12.3% 18% -21.2%
15% -20.8% 15% -28.9%
20% -28.5% 12% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$30 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized−$827
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses328 / 54
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)382 / 384
History coverage47d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 382 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) Bergs 99¢ 100¢ $135 $136 +$1 (+1%)
Set Handicap: Grabher (-1.5) vs Sobolieva (+1.5) Sobolieva 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Travaglia (-1.5) vs Baena (+1.5) Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $470 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Aguilar vs. Almeida: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 17 $196 +$2 +1%
Aguilar vs. Almeida: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $81 +$1 +1%
Aguilar vs. Almeida: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $188 +$2 +1%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 Jun 17 $21 $0 +2%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5 Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5 Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Jun 17 $94 +$2 +2%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 Jun 17 $225 +$3 +1%
Set Handicap: Torres (-1.5) vs Villanueva (+1.5) Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $109 +$1 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $75 +$1 +1%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $267 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Blus/Sadzik vs. Diez/Lopez: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 16 $103 +$3 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $31 $0 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $404 +$12 +3%
Raquillet vs. Manas: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Set Handicap: Olmo (-1.5) vs You (+1.5) Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Fuente vs. Santos: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $37 $0 +1%
Olmo vs. You: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Kym vs. Kokkinakis: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $193 +$2 +1%
Set Handicap: Kym (-1.5) vs Kokkinakis (+1.5) Jun 16 $337 +$1 +0%
Henning vs. Lee: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Philip Henning vs. Gerard Campana Lee: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Ravel vs. Blancaneaux: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $78 +$1 +1%
Set Handicap: Mensik (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 16 $322 +$7 +2%
Tomic vs. Gannon: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $193 +$2 +1%
Set Handicap: Bondioli (-1.5) vs Meza (+1.5) Jun 16 $63 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Meza (-1.5) vs Bondioli (+1.5) Jun 16 $64 $0 +0%
Daniel Jade vs. Michael Zhu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Jade vs. Zhu: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Meza vs. Bondioli: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $64 $0 +0%
Meza vs. Bondioli: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $64 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Galan (-1.5) vs Piros (+1.5) Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Piros (-1.5) vs Galan (+1.5) Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $508 +$5 +1%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $481 +$25 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $478 +$5 +1%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $460 +$19 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $334 +$10 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $109 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $37 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $337 $0 +0%
Majchrzak vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $34 $0 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $104 −$103 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Grabher (-1.5) vs Sobolieva (+1.5) BUY Sobolieva 99¢ $10 34m
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bergs (+1.5) BUY Bergs 99¢ $135 1h
Set Handicap: Travaglia (-1.5) vs Baena (+1.5) BUY Baena 100¢ $80 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 100¢ $470 9h
Aguilar vs. Almeida: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 99¢ $81 10h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 10h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 10h
Aguilar vs. Almeida: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 99¢ $196 10h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 10h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 SELL Over 100¢ $96 10h
Aguilar vs. Almeida: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $188 10h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 SELL Over 100¢ $228 10h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY No 98¢ $100 10h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 BUY Over 99¢ $8 11h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 BUY Over 99¢ $10 11h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 BUY Over 99¢ $148 11h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 BUY Over 97¢ $25 11h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 BUY Over 98¢ $64 11h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 BUY Over 95¢ $5 11h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5 BUY Over 98¢ $54 11h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5 BUY Over 95¢ $5 11h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 98¢ $54 11h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 97¢ $5 11h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 98¢ $21 11h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 BUY Over 98¢ $59 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $267 12h
Set Handicap: Torres (-1.5) vs Villanueva (+1.5) BUY Villanueva 100¢ $100 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $75 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $109 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $6 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.18 · official $146.18 (match) · 1175 history records