Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5b0…7fa5 other 11 markets active 6d ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$117 (-42%) realized −$119 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$35
other 48% −$79
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-71.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 -68.1% -71.1% 14% 14% -57.4%
≤90d 7 -68.1% -71.1% 14% 14% -57.4%
all 7 -68.1% -71.1% 14% 14% -57.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -71.1% 14% -57.4%
10% -73.9% 14% -61.5%
15% -76.4% 14% -65.2%
20% -78.7% 14% -68.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$26 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$119
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage13d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 76¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+11%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $8 −$8 -98%
Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner? May 31 $50 +$38 +75%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 30 $38 −$19 -52%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $62 −$61 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $21 −$21 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 5d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $8 14d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 15d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 15d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $14 15d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 15d
Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 17d
Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner? BUY Yes 57¢ $46 18d
Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner? BUY Yes 57¢ $4 18d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 46¢ $46 18d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 35¢ $12 18d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 40¢ $6 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 18d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 53¢ $14 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 18d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $4 18d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $34 18d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 18d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $16 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.49 · official $51.49 (match) · 35 history records