Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:07:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5b0…7219 weather 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$177 (-7%) realized −$382 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate29%29W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$426now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$106
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$93
weather 24% −$286
sports 17% −$84
crypto 7% +$106
other 6% −$17
politics 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 7 +256.5% +222.6% 43% 29% -5.2%
≤90d 101 +6.6% -3.5% 29% 21% -30.6%
all 101 +6.6% -3.5% 29% 21% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 21% -30.6%
10% -12.7% 18% -37.3%
15% -21.2% 14% -43.3%
20% -28.9% 11% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$426
Realized−$382
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses29 / 72
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions10
Markets (closed)101 / 111
History coverage69d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? No 53¢ 100¢ $97 $183 +$86 (+89%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 74¢ 90¢ $33 $41 +$8 (+23%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31? No 99¢ 98¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 99¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $18 $30 +$12 (+70%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 83¢ 83¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $18 $5 −$12 (-70%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 17¢ 17¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Yes 54¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+86%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 78¢ 79¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Spirit 72¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+39%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or higher on April 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on April 12? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or higher on April 7? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner PARIVISION 47¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Xtreme Gaming 56¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on April 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 12? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on April 6? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $152 +$86 +57%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $25 +$20 +82%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $50 −$25 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $56 −$47 -84%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $20 +$1 +7%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 Apr 30 $15 −$15 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $15 −$14 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 25 $14 −$14 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $15 +$9 +64%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ap Apr 24 $10 −$20 -200%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 12? Apr 24 $3 −$7 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or higher on April 12? Apr 24 $1 −$1 -198%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on April 12? Apr 24 $4 −$7 -199%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C or higher on April 7? Apr 24 $26 −$32 -124%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on April 12? Apr 24 $5 −$9 -198%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 13? Apr 24 $9 −$10 -110%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on April 6? Apr 24 $21 −$42 -198%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or higher on April 13? Apr 24 $1 −$2 -198%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on April 6? Apr 24 $9 −$17 -198%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 12? Apr 24 $4 −$8 -200%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 24 $2 −$4 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C or below on April 13? Apr 24 $3 −$5 -195%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ap Apr 24 $4 −$9 -197%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on April 12? Apr 24 $1 −$2 -195%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on April 6? Apr 24 $3 −$7 -195%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Apr 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 Apr 24 $29 −$29 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5 Apr 24 $14 +$14 +97%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 22 $29 −$29 -99%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $29 +$22 +75%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 21 $30 +$16 +55%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 21 $15 +$6 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Apr 19 $14 +$6 +39%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $15 +$2 +15%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Apr 18 $15 +$5 +37%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5 Apr 18 $15 +$1 +4%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 Apr 18 $29 +$1 +3%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $14 +$34 +246%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 15 $10 −$6 -63%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Apr 15 $16 −$12 -76%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 13? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on April 14? Apr 13 $1 $0 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 13? Apr 13 $1 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on April 13? Apr 12 $1 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 1m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 1m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $20 8m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 9m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 99¢ $35 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $19 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $19 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $19 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $19 19m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $19 19m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $19 21m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $19 21m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $19 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $19 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $19 23m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $19 24m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $19 24m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $19 24m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $19 25m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $19 26m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $19 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 18¢ $18 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $18 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $18 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $3 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $1 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $14 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $426.23 · official $425.59 (match) · 952 history records