Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:47:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5b1…1b71 sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,559 (-33%) realized −$10,318 · open −$241
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$834per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$508est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,520
7 days−$11,064
14 days−$10,716
30 days−$10,716
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$10,957
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -17.3% -25.1% 42% 42% -43.5%
≤30d 37 -15.8% -23.8% 43% 43% -41.4%
≤90d 37 -15.8% -23.8% 43% 43% -41.4%
all 37 -15.8% -23.8% 43% 43% -41.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.8% 43% -41.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.1% 38% -47.0%
15% -37.8% 38% -52.1%
20% -43.9% 27% -56.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$876) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$478 vs −$875 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$10,318
Unrealized−$241
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$508
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage7d
Avg bet$834
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner MODUS 19¢ 0¢ $242 $1 −$241 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $231 −$226 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $151 +$80 +53%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $59 −$58 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $498 −$488 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $448 −$437 -97%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $400 −$391 -98%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $200 +$27 +14%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $226 −$222 -98%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $252 −$246 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $600 −$589 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $350 +$500 +143%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $92 −$89 -97%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $250 +$326 +130%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $673 +$115 +17%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $250 +$102 +41%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $250 −$244 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $497 −$487 -98%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $333 +$368 +110%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $199 +$429 +216%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $278 −$275 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $302 −$297 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $1,292 −$579 -45%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $1,692 −$1,675 -99%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $566 +$780 +138%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $700 −$690 -98%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $381 +$743 +195%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $553 +$958 +173%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $360 +$193 +54%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,507 −$849 -56%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $2,684 −$2,615 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $3,461 −$3,395 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $3,697 −$3,638 -98%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $3,369 +$1,236 +37%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $1,790 +$666 +37%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $1,009 +$779 +77%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $893 −$876 -98%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $958 +$348 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 19¢ $249 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 47¢ $231 2h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $231 2h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $151 4h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY Enjoy 42¢ $59 5h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 38¢ $141 22h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY Virtus.pro 35¢ $357 22h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 29¢ $448 24h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 34¢ $400 25h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY L1ga Team 63¢ $226 2d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 98¢ $226 2d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 85¢ $200 2d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY Inner Circle 36¢ $252 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $600 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $850 2d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 40¢ $350 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 2 Winner BUY Enjoy 9¢ $92 2d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MODUS 100¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $787 2d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 84¢ $673 2d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MODUS 99¢ $570 3d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 42¢ $250 3d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner SELL OG 99¢ $352 3d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY OG 69¢ $250 3d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 30¢ $250 3d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner BUY Grind Back 46¢ $497 3d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL Grind Back 100¢ $702 3d
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 47¢ $333 3d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL Grind Back 100¢ $628 3d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 31¢ $199 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.64 · official $0.64 (match) · 66 history records