Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:10:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D5 0xd5b8…89df world 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate48%22W / 24L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$3
other 10% $0
politics 3% $0
crypto 2% −$1
weather 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 10% -9.2%
≤30d 28 +0.7% -8.9% 36% 7% -9.3%
≤90d 28 +0.7% -8.9% 36% 7% -9.3%
all 46 +0.2% -9.3% 48% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 4% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses22 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage474d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $81 +$1 +1%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $38 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $54 +$1 +2%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $65 −$4 -6%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $14 +$3 +19%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $2 $0 -10%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $78 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $41 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $37 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $105 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $74 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $84 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $80 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $5 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jun 26 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 30 $15 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 24 $4 −$1 -22%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend? Mar 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on March 22? Mar 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 21 $14 $0 -1%
Will Arizona win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 52°F or below on March 18? Mar 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will Solana hit $210 in March? Mar 17 $15 $0 +2%
Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian Mar 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $39 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $38 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $14 7h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $24 7h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $29 9h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $42 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $42 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 27h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 31h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $23 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $35 34h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $7 34h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 55¢ $45 35h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 46¢ $19 43h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $12 46h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $8 46h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $43 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $43 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.65 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records