Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:19:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.5
score
D5 0xd5b9…e44e other 422 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 158d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$84,999 (+16%) realized +$84,710 · open +$289
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate65%219W / 117L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$1,225per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$53,027now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,803
7 days+$3,142
14 days+$20,996
30 days+$23,987
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% +$20,893
other 22% +$11,259
tech 18% +$11,568
world 14% +$5,510
crypto 5% +$3,533
finance 3% +$532
economics 1% −$577
sports 0% +$136
culture 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +25.3% +13.3% 62% 49% -3.0%
≤30d 72 +24.0% +12.1% 64% 54% +2.2%
≤90d 148 +31.8% +19.2% 59% 53% +1.1%
all 336 +31.0% +18.6% 65% 50% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +18.6% 50% +0.9%
10% ← realistic here +7.2% 42% -8.7%
15% -3.1% 37% -17.6%
20% -12.6% 26% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$666) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$356 vs −$219 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.07 per $1 lost it wins $3.07
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$53,027
Realized+$84,710
Unrealized+$289
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses219 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions101
Markets (closed)336 / 422
History coverage158d ⚠
Avg bet$1,225
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 101 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 66¢ $10,100 $13,332 +$3,232 (+32%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 34¢ $10,000 $6,800 −$3,200 (-32%)
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No 50¢ 89¢ $2,061 $3,670 +$1,609 (+78%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 89¢ 99¢ $1,694 $1,889 +$195 (+11%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 89¢ 94¢ $1,691 $1,786 +$95 (+6%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 80¢ 94¢ $1,203 $1,412 +$209 (+17%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 68¢ 48¢ $1,200 $856 −$344 (-29%)
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 88¢ $760 $813 +$53 (+7%)
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? No 72¢ 88¢ $658 $796 +$138 (+21%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 34¢ 36¢ $705 $728 +$23 (+3%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 65¢ 56¢ $812 $697 −$115 (-14%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 40¢ 42¢ $665 $693 +$28 (+4%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $688 $692 +$4 (+1%)
Kurds declare independence from Iran? No 65¢ 99¢ $455 $692 +$237 (+52%)
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? No 87¢ 98¢ $609 $684 +$75 (+12%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 97¢ $539 $679 +$140 (+26%)
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? No 61¢ 72¢ $482 $575 +$93 (+19%)
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes 91¢ 95¢ $543 $566 +$22 (+4%)
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Yes 47¢ 47¢ $509 $503 −$5 (-1%)
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? No 65¢ 82¢ $390 $492 +$102 (+26%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a technocrat? No 55¢ 60¢ $440 $480 +$40 (+9%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 87¢ 94¢ $435 $472 +$37 (+9%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 22¢ 92¢ $110 $458 +$348 (+316%)
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? No 67¢ 88¢ $335 $437 +$102 (+31%)
Kristi Noem divorce by August 31? No 64¢ 84¢ $320 $417 +$97 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $2,166 +$641 +30%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $35 −$34 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $251 −$251 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $268 −$268 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $420 −$420 -100%
AI data center moratorium passed before 2027? Jun 15 $180 −$180 -100%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 15 $1,813 +$2,381 +131%
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? Jun 14 $230 +$166 +72%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $145 −$145 -100%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 13 $135 −$28 -20%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 13 $759 −$611 -80%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 13 $216 −$216 -100%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 13 $3,234 +$1,345 +42%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 13 $88 −$88 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 13 $1,242 −$208 -17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 13 $7,223 −$3,610 -50%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $1,421 +$499 +35%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $201 +$40 +20%
Will Vivian Wilson be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX Jun 12 $124 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $379 +$69 +18%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $171 +$35 +20%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 12 $539 +$632 +117%
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31 Jun 12 $213 +$87 +41%
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ? Jun 12 $2,662 +$265 +10%
SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company? Jun 12 $7 +$93 +1266%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $4,976 +$610 +12%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2,073 +$736 +36%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $2,092 +$62 +3%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 12 $242 +$466 +193%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $1,463 +$22 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $5,877 +$29 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30? Jun 12 $230 +$72 +31%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 11 $1,450 +$375 +26%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.6T by June 30? Jun 10 $35 +$7 +19%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $721 +$615 +85%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $479 +$248 +52%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $21,968 +$2,922 +13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $626 +$763 +122%
FDA approves MannKind's Afrezza? Jun 02 $125 +$107 +85%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $106,000 +$15,000 +14%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 02 $192 −$192 -100%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31? Jun 02 $104 −$104 -100%
Evo Morales arrested by May 31? Jun 02 $666 −$135 -20%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 02 $754 −$754 -100%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $216 +$65 +30%
Don Lemon charges dropped? Jun 01 $665 +$693 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $8 55m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 29¢ $313 12h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $448 17h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 25¢ $36 17h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 25¢ $39 17h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 25¢ $40 17h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 25¢ $50 17h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 25¢ $21 17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $35 18h
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 19h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $425 20h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $43 20h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $110 20h
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $429 21h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 25¢ $11 23h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 25¢ $21 24h
Anthropic IPO before 2027? SELL No 25¢ $52 24h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY No 25¢ $10 34h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $36 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 36h
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? SELL Yes 99¢ $124 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $251 2d
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires? SELL Yes 99¢ $272 2d
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $894 2d
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $1,013 2d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? BUY No 43¢ $818 3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $80 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53,026.87 · official $53,012.36 (match) · 3500 history records