Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:40:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D5
0xd5ba…1259
sports · 80 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
+$743 +13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$282 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$226
Realized−$282
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses23 / 54
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions3
Markets (closed)77 / 80
History coverage176d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 3 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$352
7 days−$667
14 days−$873
30 days−$752
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 20¢ 20¢ $75 $77 +$2 (+2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 50¢ 50¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 23¢ 22¢ $75 $73 −$2 (-2%)
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Zongyu Li Yujia Huang 25¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
UFC 325: Mullarkey vs. Salkilld (Lightweight, Prelims) Mullarkey 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Connecticut Huskies 23¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Kings vs. Pistons Kings 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 34¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder Lakers 7¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
UFC 325: Tuivasa vs. Teixeira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Tuivasa 28¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Hikaru Sato Hikaru Sato 36¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Suns 26¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $223 $0 −$223 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Spurs 38¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Thunder Thunder 28¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 4¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Lopes 41¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Hikaru Sato Jun 14 $42 −$41 -98%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Zongyu Li Jun 14 $74 −$73 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $408 −$200 -49%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Sara Saito Jun 13 $68 +$104 +153%
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Mai Hontama Jun 13 $107 +$103 +96%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $46 −$45 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $68 −$66 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $564 +$16 +3%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $50 −$49 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $40 −$39 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $390 −$3 -1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $152 −$149 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $26 −$25 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $210 −$206 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $197 +$214 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 29 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 29 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 29 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 29 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 29 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 27 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 27 $5 +$8 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 27 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 27 $10 +$8 +74%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $71 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 24 $42 +$207 +491%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 24 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 24 $26 +$126 +478%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 24 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 24 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 24 $10 +$17 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 24 $5 +$2 +39%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire May 24 $207 +$40 +19%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery May 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $24 −$24 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $44 −$43 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $34 −$33 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 88% −$136
crypto 7% +$179
other 6% −$323
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $76 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $77 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $77 4h
ITF Tokyo: Ikumi Yamazaki vs Hikaru Sato BUY Hikaru Sato 36¢ $42 5h
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Zongyu Li BUY Yujia Huang 25¢ $66 5h
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Zongyu Li BUY Yujia Huang 26¢ $8 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 44¢ $203 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 57¢ $469 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 24¢ $205 8h
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Mai Hontama SELL Zongyu Li 100¢ $209 27h
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Sara Saito BUY Yujia Huang 39¢ $68 27h
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Mai Hontama BUY Zongyu Li 75¢ $5 28h
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Mai Hontama BUY Zongyu Li 49¢ $102 28h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 26¢ $102 29h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 15¢ $46 30h
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm BUY Seattle Storm 24¢ $102 30h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 10¢ $68 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 26¢ $55 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 27¢ $53 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 12¢ $51 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 87¢ $1 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 11¢ $472 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 88¢ $1 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 6¢ $103 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 6¢ $103 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 28¢ $306 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 34¢ $50 5d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 10¢ $14 5d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 8¢ $26 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 6¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -63.2% -66.7% 20% 13% -46.6%
≤30d 48 -28.1% -35.0% 29% 27% -32.9%
≤90d 64 +2.7% -7.1% 33% 31% -4.6%
all 77 +0.8% -8.8% 30% 29% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 29% -14.5%
10% -17.5% 27% -22.7%
15% -25.5% 27% -30.2%
20% -32.8% 26% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.99 · official $225.99 (match) · 180 history records