trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +127.3% | +105.6% | 100% | 100% | +105.6% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +127.3% | +105.6% | 100% | 100% | +105.6% |
| all | 10 | -13.3% | -21.5% | 40% | 20% | -47.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.5% | 20% | -47.0% |
| 10% | -29.1% | 10% | -52.1% |
| 15% | -35.9% | 10% | -56.7% |
| 20% | -42.2% | 10% | -61.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 65¢ | 64¢ | $500 | $492 | −$8 (-2%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 58¢ | 54¢ | $150 | $138 | −$12 (-8%) |
| Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? | Yes | 75¢ | 70¢ | $100 | $93 | −$7 (-7%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | Jun 12 | $999 | +$1,272 | +127% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Feb 28 | $6,088 | −$6,088 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Feb 28 | $1,094 | −$82 | -8% |
| Epstein client list released by June 30? | Feb 28 | $999 | +$54 | +5% |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Feb 21 | $1,000 | +$23 | +2% |
| US forces enter Iran by January 31? | Jan 17 | $95 | $0 | -0% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 17 | $275 | −$181 | -66% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Jan 14 | $200 | −$25 | -12% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? | Dec 30 | $1,000 | +$183 | +18% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | Dec 03 | $1,049 | −$50 | -5% |