Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5bc…1a59 crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (127 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$288 (-15%) realized −$62 · open −$226
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate68%15W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day127.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$288
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (127 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +2.3% -7.4% 68% 64% -13.4%
≤30d 22 +2.3% -7.4% 68% 64% -13.4%
≤90d 22 +2.3% -7.4% 68% 64% -13.4%
all 22 +2.3% -7.4% 68% 64% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover127.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 64% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 55% -21.7%
15% -24.4% 41% -29.3%
20% -31.8% 32% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$69 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$62
Unrealized−$226
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day127.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 56¢ 20¢ $200 $74 −$126 (-63%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$6 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$6 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$16 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$64 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $53 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$22 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $206 +$44 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $171 +$22 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$23 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$10 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $39 +$50 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $45 −$34 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $141 −$141 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $109 +$65 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $79 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $106 +$42 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $52 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $52 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $12 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $3 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $45 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $0 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $2 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $5 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $30 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 17m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 19m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $19 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $4 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $4 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $12 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $20 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $6 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $2 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $15 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $3 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $2 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.76 · official $211.70 · 140 history records