Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:54:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5be…5c26 other 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,260 (-1%) realized −$1,261 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate21%25W / 93L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,034per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$773now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$17
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$54
other 37% −$119
sports 15% −$1,102
world 4% −$3
culture 2% −$2
crypto 2% +$4
economics 1% −$2
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 47 -2.2% -11.5% 6% 0% -11.3%
all 118 +0.2% -9.3% 21% 11% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 11% -10.5%
10% -18.0% 11% -19.0%
15% -25.9% 8% -26.9%
20% -33.2% 6% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,320) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$21 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$773
Realized−$1,261
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses25 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage148d
Avg bet$1,034
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $772 $773 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,127 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,643 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,603 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,612 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,645 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,460 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $615 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $4,480 −$5 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $3,784 −$4 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 03 $396 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 03 $629 +$2 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $572 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $419 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $857 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $2,057 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,222 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,495 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $4,077 −$6 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,304 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,170 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 01 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 01 $1,001 +$2 +0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $1,441 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,493 −$2 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $2,224 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2,442 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $2,504 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,421 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,442 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $1,928 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $1,272 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,578 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $3,285 −$3 -0%
Stars vs. Flyers Apr 10 $1,237 −$1,237 -100%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $162 $0 -0%
Will CF América win on 2026-02-07? Mar 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-1.5) Mar 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $560 1h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $560 4h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $554 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $555 5d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $562 5d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $563 5d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $372 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $373 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $915 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $915 7d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $772 9d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,125 11d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,127 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,640 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,643 12d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,640 13d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,643 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,647 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,649 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,642 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,645 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,458 19d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,460 19d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $614 21d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $615 22d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,698 22d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,700 22d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,171 22d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,173 22d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,318 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $772.98 · official $772.98 (match) · 359 history records