Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D5 0xd5be…0e42 world 246 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,638 (-5%) realized −$4,647 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate83%176W / 35L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$5,237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 107d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$1,104
other 16% +$303
politics 7% +$115
culture 7% +$977
tech 4% +$50
sports 4% −$343
economics 2% +$32
finance 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 88% 8% -7.4%
≤30d 84 -5.1% -14.1% 83% 2% -12.7%
≤90d 172 -3.3% -12.5% 83% 5% -11.2%
all 211 +5.3% -4.7% 83% 8% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 8% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 4% -17.9%
15% -22.1% 2% -25.9%
20% -29.8% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$192 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$5,237
Realized−$4,647
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses176 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions36
Markets (closed)211 / 246
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$353
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $1,896 $1,975 +$79 (+4%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $389 $408 +$20 (+5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $268 $282 +$15 (+6%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $273 $267 −$7 (-2%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? No 98¢ 99¢ $244 $248 +$4 (+1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? No 96¢ 97¢ $240 $241 +$1 (+1%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $238 $239 +$1 (+1%)
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $231 $232 +$1 (+0%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? No 98¢ 99¢ $208 $210 +$2 (+1%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $176 $177 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $140 $146 +$6 (+4%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $98 $102 +$4 (+4%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? No 96¢ 95¢ $95 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 99¢ 99¢ $86 $86 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $85 $86 +$1 (+1%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $55 $57 +$2 (+4%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $53 $55 +$2 (+3%)
Will Hunter Biden announce a Delaware Senate run by July 14? No 95¢ 98¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+3%)
Tucker Carlson federally charged? No 97¢ 99¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 67¢ 16¢ $168 $39 −$129 (-77%)
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No 86¢ 89¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 93¢ 95¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+2%)
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027? No 93¢ 96¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $246 +$4 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $953 +$31 +3%
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? Jun 17 $489 +$18 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $135 +$3 +2%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 16 $280 +$23 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $38 −$6 -15%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $228 +$2 +1%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin Jun 16 $72 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 16 $1,533 +$1 +0%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Jun 15 $37 +$17 +45%
UFC Freedom 250: Weather Delay? Jun 15 $72 +$1 +2%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 15 $200 +$48 +24%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 10m? Jun 15 $97 +$1 +1%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 15 $26 −$19 -72%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $80 +$2 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $99 +$8 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $234 +$3 +1%
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in June? Jun 14 $245 +$2 +1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $43 $0 +1%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $135 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $280 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 12 $247 +$2 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 12 $409 $0 -0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $101 +$2 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $240 −$2 -1%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3 Jun 08 $17 $0 +1%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $57 +$1 +1%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 08 $385 +$4 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $322 −$20 -6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 08 $1,335 +$26 +2%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Jun 06 $79 +$3 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $384 +$4 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $71 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $241 +$1 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m Jun 01 $218 +$2 +1%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $267 +$5 +2%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Jun 01 $49 +$3 +6%
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in May? Jun 01 $495 +$4 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $242 +$8 +3%
Will Cal Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $53 +$1 +1%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $1,056 +$14 +1%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $135 +$1 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $23 +$1 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $1,153 +$22 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 31 $1,821 +$101 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $105 18m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $87 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $40 2h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 99¢ $2 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? BUY No 98¢ $186 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? BUY No 98¢ $29 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? BUY No 98¢ $29 14h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $17 17h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $230 17h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $144 17h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 18h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $44 18h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $26 18h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 96¢ $157 19h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 21h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 96¢ $139 21h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $185 21h
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $53 22h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? BUY No 96¢ $240 22h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $60 24h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 98¢ $9 26h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 98¢ $15 39h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 98¢ $15 39h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 98¢ $39 39h
Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? BUY No 99¢ $6 40h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $30 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 96¢ $240 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $221 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,237.05 · official $5,236.17 (match) · 3500 history records