Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:58:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D5 0xd5bf…c646 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 558d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$46 (+4%) realized +$46 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 25L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$46
politics 5% $0
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 26 +1.1% -8.5% 4% 4% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 4% -5.8%
10% -17.3% 4% -14.8%
15% -25.3% 4% -23.0%
20% -32.6% 4% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$0 · ×972.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×69.45 per $1 lost it wins $69.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

558d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage558d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 24 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? Aug 24 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship? Jul 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Stuttgart win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 14 $0 $0 -29%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Jun 14 $893 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 19 $0 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 15 $0 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 16 $1 $0 +0%
Kraken vs. Canucks Apr 03 $34 +$46 +138%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $1 $0 -29%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 05 $1 $0 +0%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Dec 17 $0 $0 -50%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 12 $0 $0 +0%
Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 05 $26 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 22d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 22d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 52d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 82d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $9 96d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $9 96d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $10 117d
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $10 117d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $11 145d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 145d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $10 183d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 97¢ $10 183d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 207d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 207d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 99¢ $9 234d
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $9 234d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 265d
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 266d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 295d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 295d
Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship? SELL Yes $1 334d
Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship? SELL Yes $0 334d
Will the Giants win the 2026 NFC Championship? BUY Yes $1 334d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 368d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 368d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 368d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? SELL Yes $1 396d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? BUY Yes $1 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records