Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:31:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5c4…4a85 crypto 403 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$130 (-5%) realized −$130 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate65%262W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$22
14 days−$108
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$238
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -3.3% -12.5% 75% 54% -14.0%
≤30d 321 -12.9% -21.2% 64% 48% -18.3%
≤90d 403 -13.3% -21.5% 65% 47% -18.8%
all 403 -13.3% -21.5% 65% 47% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.5% 47% -18.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.0% 29% -26.5%
15% -35.9% 17% -33.6%
20% -42.2% 9% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses262 / 141
Open positions0
Markets (closed)403 / 403
History coverage34d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 403 Trades
no open positions (120 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$10 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $13 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $15 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $12 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $6 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 990 history records