Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:59:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5c7…b0c3 weather 195 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$105 (-1%) realized −$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%183W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$106
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 42 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 142 -1.2% -10.6% 97% 0% -10.7%
all 194 -0.8% -10.3% 94% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -10.4%
10% -18.9% 0% -19.0%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses183 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)194 / 195
History coverage125d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 94°F or higher on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $92 $93 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? Jun 23 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 22? Jun 22 $43 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? Jun 20 $163 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $169 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $169 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $163 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $163 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 10? Jun 11 $95 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 9? Jun 10 $179 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $133 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 07 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $162 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 06 $179 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $180 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 3? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 2? Jun 02 $164 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 1? Jun 02 $169 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $162 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on May 31? Jun 01 $164 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on May 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 29? May 30 $166 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 29? May 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on May 28? May 28 $164 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 27? May 28 $180 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 73°F or below on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 23? May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 21? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 17? May 21 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 20? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C or below on May 20 May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 94°F or higher on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $92 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $94 31h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C or below on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $174 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $43 2d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $43 2d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $163 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $169 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $93 7d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $12 8d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $169 9d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $90 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $64 10d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $163 11d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $92 12d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $96 12d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $163 13d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $95 14d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $3 15d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $2 15d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $3 16d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $20 16d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $179 16d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C or below on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $133 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $86 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $5 17d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 100¢ $114 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.50 · official $92.50 (match) · 480 history records