Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:07:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5c7…19fa politics 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 70L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$17
other 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 73 -1.9% -11.2% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage632d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $52 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win Texas US Senate Election? Jan 25 $0 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $51 $0 -1%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pompeo be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will PSV Eindhoven win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Trump declassifies UFO files in first 100 days? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will CeeDee Lamb be the top Fantasy Wide Reciever? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Patrick Mahomes be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bijan Robinson be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Steve Scalise be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 1 Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Tennessee win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Davante Adams be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Rob Goldstein announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Josh Jacobs be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Justin Jefferson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the top Fantasy Running Back? Dec 21 $0 $0 -2%
Will Jalen Duren lead the NBA in Rebounds? Dec 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 21 $0 $0 -3%
GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? Dec 09 $0 $0 -2%
Will the Saints win the NFC South? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Joe Burrow be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Dec 09 $0 $0 -5%
Will Kyren Williams be the top Fantasy Running Back? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Jaguars win the AFC Championship? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Hunter Biden sentenced to community service in gun case? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will USC win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Colts win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 25 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 25 $0 $0 -1%
Will LSU win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 25 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 15h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 18d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 22d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 22d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 35d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 35d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 41d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 42d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 68d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 68d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $52 75d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $52 75d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $52 96d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $52 96d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 98d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 99d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 101d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 102d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 110d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 110d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 113d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 115d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 136d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 148d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $50 210d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 248d
Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the top Fantasy Running Back? SELL No 98¢ $0 549d
Will Jahmyr Gibbs be the top Fantasy Running Back? BUY No 98¢ $0 549d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 209 history records