trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 6 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 100% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -6.0% | -14.9% | 93% | 0% | -14.9% |
| all | 22 | -12.9% | -21.2% | 86% | 0% | -20.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -21.2% | 0% | -20.0% |
| 10% | -28.7% | 0% | -27.6% |
| 15% | -35.6% | 0% | -34.6% |
| 20% | -41.9% | 0% | -41.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $100 | $101 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? | Jun 16 | $101 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? | Jun 14 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 14 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec | Jun 05 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 | Jun 03 | $100 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 24? | May 25 | $100 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | May 23 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? | May 22 | $100 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? | May 19 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | May 17 | $100 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? | May 05 | $100 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? | Apr 22 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 04 | $99 | −$99 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? | Apr 04 | $98 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? | Apr 01 | $97 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? | Mar 25 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | Mar 25 | $105 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Mar 20 | $231 | −$231 | -100% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 20 | $230 | +$1 | +0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? | Mar 16 | $225 | +$5 | +2% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 7? | Mar 12 | $222 | +$3 | +2% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? | Mar 07 | $219 | +$2 | +1% |