Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:47:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D5 0xd5ce…4aa0 crypto 1683 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$427 (-5%) realized −$427 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate82%1382W / 300L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$24
14 days−$65
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$271
other 2% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -5.5% -14.5% 81% 62% -12.5%
≤30d 487 -2.3% -11.6% 83% 68% -10.9%
≤90d 1682 -3.5% -12.7% 82% 63% -12.5%
all 1682 -3.5% -12.7% 82% 63% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 63% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 17% -20.9%
15% -28.7% 2% -28.5%
20% -35.7% 0% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$427
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1382 / 300
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1682 / 1683
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1682 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $34 −$7 -20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $28 +$6 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 +$7 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $27 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $28 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $34 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $28 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.81 · official $26.81 (match) · 3500 history records