Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5d4…8b32 sports 283 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (114 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$22,820 (+27%) realized +$22,850 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate20%55W / 225L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day114.2pace
Fees−$2,224est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$914
other 14% −$347
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (114 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)+26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +15.1% +4.1% 26% 16% -12.4%
≤30d 280 +39.7% +26.4% 20% 16% -12.4%
≤90d 280 +39.7% +26.4% 20% 16% -12.4%
all 280 +39.7% +26.4% 20% 16% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover114.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.4% 16% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here +14.3% 15% -20.8%
15% +3.2% 15% -28.5%
20% -6.9% 13% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +76% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$443 vs −$114 · ×3.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized+$22,850
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses55 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$2,224
Open positions3
Markets (closed)280 / 283
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$298
Trades / day114.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 37¢ $160 $138 −$22 (-14%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 50¢ $56 $48 −$8 (-14%)
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Dayana Yastremska 0¢ 3¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+2899%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $67 +$239 +358%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $44 +$403 +920%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $92 −$89 -97%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $220 −$220 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $117 −$117 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $69 −$67 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $235 −$235 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $24 +$779 +3233%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $71 −$66 -93%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $240 −$240 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $160 −$160 -100%
Minaur vs. Diallo: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $154 +$128 +83%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $63 −$56 -89%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $973 +$26 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $133 −$100 -75%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $56 −$16 -29%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $67 −$1 -2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $107 −$107 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $3,957 +$50 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8,822 +$1,315 +15%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $173 −$107 -62%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $132 +$20 +15%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,141 +$51 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $14,386 −$463 -3%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $5,353 +$157 +3%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,533 −$1,533 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $624 −$624 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $350 +$1,050 +300%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
HSBC Championships: Completed Match: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $81 +$2 +2%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $111 −$28 -25%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $95 −$17 -18%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $83 +$2 +2%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $695 −$237 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Ekaterina Alexandrova 14¢ $305 3m
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 0¢ $0 6m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 72¢ $447 17m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 3¢ $67 20m
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 7¢ $44 40m
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 8¢ $92 56m
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 51¢ $116 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 6¢ $69 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 1¢ $4 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 1¢ $0 3h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 1¢ $1 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 4¢ $113 3h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 4¢ $4 3h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 0¢ $0 4h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 1¢ $0 4h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 18¢ $40 5h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 18¢ $9 5h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 18¢ $171 5h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 2¢ $1 5h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 2¢ $0 5h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 2¢ $1 5h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Elise Mertens 2¢ $0 5h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3¢ $11 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3¢ $1 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3¢ $13 20h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $235 20h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Tomas Etcheverry 2¢ $47 23h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Tomas Etcheverry 2¢ $8 23h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Tomas Etcheverry 2¢ $51 23h
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Tomas Etcheverry 2¢ $0 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.48 · official $186.48 (match) · 3500 history records