Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D5 0xd5d4…ed00 other 61 markets active 4h ago coverage 591d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate25%15W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 78% −$14
politics 13% −$6
other 4% +$37
sports 2% −$76
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 43 +1.7% -8.0% 26% 23% -12.9%
all 60 +2.5% -7.3% 25% 20% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 20% -9.8%
10% -16.1% 20% -18.5%
15% -24.2% 17% -26.3%
20% -31.7% 15% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

591d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses15 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage591d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $19 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $89 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $90 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $88 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $83 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $8 +$11 +140%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $71 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 06 $71 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 21 $74 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $78 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $74 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $74 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $7 +$4 +60%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $8 +$4 +48%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$12 +165%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $7 +$4 +59%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $10 +$5 +52%
Utah vs. Kraken Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Apr 06 $32 −$32 -100%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 02 $27 +$14 +52%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5) Mar 30 $23 +$24 +103%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Mar 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) Mar 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Blues vs. Hurricanes Mar 27 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 23 $20 +$6 +32%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 23 $25 +$17 +67%
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-03-16? Mar 17 $21 +$6 +30%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $23 +$14 +61%
Based FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Mar 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $88 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Feb 27 $90 −$2 -2%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Feb 13 $89 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 3h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 5h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 25h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 3d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 8d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 10d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 10d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 11d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 13d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 14d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 16d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 17d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 17d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $18 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.54 · official $31.54 (match) · 243 history records