Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:38:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D5 0xd5d4…cfcb crypto 483 markets active 3h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$45 (-1%) realized −$47 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%460W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day40.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$60
14 days−$60
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$30
politics 3% −$15
finance 2% −$17
other 1% +$2
sports 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 301 -0.9% -10.4% 96% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 477 -0.5% -9.9% 96% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 477 -0.5% -9.9% 96% 0% -10.3%
all 477 -0.5% -9.9% 96% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 0% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses460 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)477 / 483
History coverage12d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day40.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 477 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+3%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 4AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $14 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.79 · official $141.34 (match) · 957 history records