Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5d6…8267 sports 450 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$774 (-2%) realized −$774 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%258W / 191L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$425est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$536
7 days−$276
14 days−$150
30 days−$428
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$1,238
other 13% −$200
crypto 2% +$158
world 0% −$64
politics 0% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +13.8% +2.9% 47% 45% -18.0%
≤30d 127 +7.0% -3.2% 53% 51% -13.9%
≤90d 449 +2.3% -7.5% 57% 53% -12.7%
all 449 +2.3% -7.5% 57% 53% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 53% -12.7%
10% -16.3% 45% -21.1%
15% -24.4% 39% -28.7%
20% -31.8% 30% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$67 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$774
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses258 / 191
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$425
Open positions0
Markets (closed)449 / 450
History coverage78d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 449 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $91 +$92 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$12 -12%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $201 −$200 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $73 +$123 +169%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $204 −$93 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $180 +$86 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$85 -84%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $56 +$32 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 +$67 +165%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$13 +132%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $56 +$35 +62%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$30 +119%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $56 +$32 +57%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $36 +$33 +93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$13 +129%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $18 +$52 +291%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $23 +$84 +365%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$20 +197%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $162 −$162 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 +$187 +365%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$38 +249%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$12 +79%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $101 +$20 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$7 -72%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $87 +$136 +157%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$25 +62%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $91 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 24¢ $90 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 90¢ $201 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 75¢ $195 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 27¢ $72 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $102 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $18 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 100¢ $266 4h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 67¢ $180 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $94 4h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia 6¢ $17 4h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 5h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 35¢ $102 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 18h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 53¢ $10 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 27h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $51 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY 28¢ $10 40h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $26 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1071 history records